IMHPA sees a drier stretch from mid-November after a weak September

If you plan weekends around rain, watch your water tank, or feel every blackout when hydro plants stumble, treat Sunday's IMHPA briefing as a planning note, not background noise.

On 27 September 2026, Telemetro reported remarks by Luz Graciela de Calzadilla, director of the Instituto de Meteorología e Hidrología de Panamá (IMHPA). She said September is closing with about a 60% rainfall deficit on Panama's Pacific slope, that October can still recover some rain, and that from the second half of November rains start to scarce in earnest, with December turning dry. She also flagged heat-index rises of about 2-3 °C under El Niño and stress on a hydro-heavy power mix.

What is new versus what you already heard

PanExpats already covered the Cabinet El Niño emergency that unlocked special purchasing power up to B/.80 million. That was the legal-budget tool. This pack is the season path: when the late rains may help, and when the dry season looks early and sharp.

The ~60% Pacific deficit figure is not invented this weekend. IMHPA and press used similar "up to 60%" language in late August while validating May-August rains. Read the 27 September line as a month-closing confirmation plus a clearer Oct → mid-Nov → Dec sequence, not as a brand-new percentage discovered yesterday.

Why water and power move together

De Calzadilla linked weak Pacific rains to pressure on Panama's hydroelectric matrix: wind and solar help, she said, but not enough when reservoirs are stressed. Earlier IMHPA briefings (August) had already described 11 hydro basins under water stress and uneven Caribbean-versus-Pacific patterns typical of El Niño. Treat those basin counts as prior IMHPA context, not a fresh 27 September census.

NOAA outlook language relayed through IMHPA has pointed to El Niño influence lasting into 2027. Telemetro's 27 September clip quotes a window running through about June 2027 ("hasta junio del próximo año"). Earlier August coverage had cited through about May 2027. Prefer the 27 September Telemetro phrasing, and keep the hedge: forecast horizons move; do not treat any single end month as locked forever.

What this is not

Not a SINAPROC flash flood alert for tonight.
Not a new national emergency decree (that pack is already live).
Not the Canal's separate promise to try holding 32 daily transits / 48 ft draft through December if October-November basin rains cooperate. That ops story is live; this is the wider climate script those rains sit inside.

Bottom line for expats: use October as a possible recharge window, then plan for an earlier, drier late year on the Pacific side: tanks, pumps, generator fuel, cooler sleep, and patience with IDAAN/Edemet/Edechi/ENSA variability. Recheck IMHPA and SINAPROC before you treat any dated alert as current.

Based on Telemetro (27 Sep 2026) quoting IMHPA director De Calzadilla (NOAA window through about June 2027), with August IMHPA/press baselines for the 60% deficit and earlier May-2027 horizon language. Forecast, not a rationing order.

Key points

27 Sep IMHPA (via Telemetro): Sep closes ~60% Pacific rain deficit
Oct may recover some rain; scarcity from mid-Nov; Dec dry
Heat index +2-3 °C; hydro matrix under stress
NOAA window (Telemetro 27 Sep): through about June 2027; keep forecast hedge (horizons move)
Distinct from live El Niño emergency B/.80M and Canal 32/48 rains pack
60% figure also used in Aug briefings (attribute as closing confirmation); 11 basins = prior context

Sources

https://www.telemetro.com/nacionales/imhpa-advierte-las-lluvias-podrian-recuperarse-octubre-pero-el-panorama-cambiara-despues-n6093170
https://www.laestrella.com.pa/economia/el-nino-reduce-hasta-60-las-lluvias-en-el-pacifico-de-panama-y-presiona-al-agro-GE25213588
https://www.ecotvpanama.com/nacionales/el-nino-podria-extenderse-mayo-2027-y-adelantar-la-temporada-seca-panama-n6089661
Context (live emergency pack, do not re-pack): Gaceta / prior PanExpats El Niño B/.80M item