PanExpats
Sign Up

Sixteen Pacific basins are now extremely dry under El Niño

If you depend on tank water, watch power bills when hydro runs low, or live/farm on the Pacific slope, IMHPA's late-September update is sharper than a generic "drier later" outlook: the basin map itself has deteriorated.

On 30 September 2026, TVN reported an IMHPA briefing led by acting director Berta Olmedo. Panamá América published a matching October seasonal read on 1 October 2026. Both put El Niño still in the very strong category and warn that rain events that still appear do not cancel the drought signal.

What changed on the basin map

  • Panama monitors 52 hydrographic basins.
  • Prior update cited in TVN: only one basin (Río Pacora) was in extremely dry condition.
  • Current update: 16 basins extremely dry; 3 very dry; 5 moderately dry.
  • IMHPA says conditions could worsen over the next three months.

Olmedo said Pacific sea-surface anomalies were running more than 3°C above normal in the monitored framing, with El Niño expected to reach peak intensity between September and February of the following year. Models cited by Panamá América keep a 100% probability of staying in the very-strong category into early 2027, with possible weakening after February 2027.

October-December rain picture (Pacific vs Caribbean)

Panamá América's IMHPA seasonal note for October expects below-normal rains across much of the Pacific slope, including parts of Chiriquí, Ngäbe Buglé, Veraguas, Coclé, Colón, Panamá, and Darién. Herrera, Los Santos, and Chiriquí highlands may see near-normal to slightly above-normal rains. November is framed as a possible Pacific recovery month. December brings more consecutive dry days and a risk that the dry season arrives early. Caribbean rains stay nearer normal in Oct-Nov, then decline in December. Short, intense downpours can still happen even when monthly totals stay low.

Why hydro and power enter the story

Olmedo told TVN that IMHPA shares forecasts with the Centro Nacional de Despacho and watches reservoir levels. If conditions worsen further, authorities may need other generation sources to meet demand. Heat stress also hits people, pets, livestock, and crops.

Separately, Sinaproc kept a short-horizon rain/storm prevention aviso through 3 October 2026 (Telemetro, 1 Oct). That aviso does not cancel the multi-month El Niño drought signal; it is a near-term flash-flood and thunderstorm caution on days when convection still fires.

Bottom line for expats

Treat this as a water and power planning story, not only a weather curiosity. Check building cisterns and pump backups, especially on the Pacific slope and in Chiriquí/interior corridors. Expect heat and possible early dry-season behavior into late 2026. Do not confuse a few heavy afternoon storms with a recovered basin map.